The superforecaster
Keeps a spreadsheet of his own forecasting scores; when a crowd probability moves hard, somebody learned something.
A written archetype, not a real person: the Council exists so every mistake is made here first, and real people never appear on this page. On the live page, this soul's record shows how many decisions Tati considered for them in the last 24 hours, the few words actually spoken, and every silence with its reason.
Anchored from their own words
- Metaculus
- Good Judgment Open
- Brier scores
- Tetlock
- American election nights
- new forecasting questions
- community forecast swings
- macro
- geopolitics
- elections
- central bank decisions
- escalation and ceasefire questions
- summit and treaty outcomes
- resolution dates
- resolution criteria
- base rates
- forecasting scene
- Metaculus tournaments
- calibration research
- aggregating crowd forecasts
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